Last night I sat down to carefully watch the basketball game on my DVR - the safest way to protect yourself from a potential gut-punch loss in the making. As the lead grew to 19 I had been sucked back in and was watching the game with a smile on my face. Then that lead evaporated and the bubble bursting loss nearly happened. Fortunately the team pulled it out and we have continued our trend of being better than all the bad teams but far from a good team.
What continued to frustrate me, however, is why? Why isn't this team better? Why is our defense so bad? Why do we go through long droughts on offense?
There have been plenty of armchair analysis posts here and elsewhere this season that have pointed out some of the more obvious contributions:
- Our best player, senior, captain, and POY candidate has missed 11 games.
- Our center position has vastly under-performed even the simple task of "catch good pass, complete layup" while also struggling to defend and rebound.
- The PF position was finally supposed to have a true stretch four option this year and yet both Chatman and Wilson are now glued to the bench for performance reasons.
- We are still feeling the recruiting aftershocks of early-departures and being unable to close on some top prospects.
Ace did a good job today of illustrating one of the ways in which this team misses Caris so much - getting to the rim. Without question he would help in a variety of ways, especially on offense. But let's face it - that doesn't explain our defensive woes and it doesn't entirely explain Coach Beilein's inability to overcome those long stretches of bad play on the court.
What we've sort of forgotten about is the loss of Spike Albrecht to this team. It is easy to see why his skills as a shooter, ball screen player, and ball handler are missed, there are some other ways that I think may be hiding under the surface.
- Guard Fatigue
Right now there are only two ball handlers on this team - Walton & Rahk. As a result, they have to play a ton of minutes. Irvin has come along as a ball handler and they can use him sparingly at the 2, but let's not pretend that's a great idea right now. More often you see Dakich come in for a few minutes.....which is not ideal.Rahk has already played more minutes this season than all of last year. He's averaging over 32mpg since Caris got hurt. Meanwhile, Walton is averaging a stunning 35.6mpg in that time frame. For reference, that's more minutes per game than Burke in 2013 or Stauskas in 2014.
Perhaps Walton and Rahk are struggling on D somewhat because they're both tired and also very afraid of getting fouls since they have no back-up. Even though Spike is a poor defender aside from opportunistic steals, he would allow those guys more rest and the willingness to be physical knowing they can sit for a few minutes with foul trouble. I think our foul aversion, especially by the guards, is a major reason we can't keep people out of the lane. Yet can you blame Walton and Rahk for not being more grabby or physical when they know a foul likely replaces them with Dakich?
- Lineup Flexibility
Before this season the talk was focused on how this was the deepest team Beilein had ever fielded. There wouldn't be minutes for everyone. We should redshirt Rahk and Wagner to give them some extra eligibility. Now where are we?Last night Beilein played essentially a 7 man roster with only Doyle and Dawkins playing meaningful minutes off the bench. Even in the run to the final four we were playing more bench guys than that despite a far superior starting lineup.
You're seeing Coach Beilein look more frustrated and animated on the sideline. The reason? What options does he have! When Walton has the careless turnover that sparked the Gopher team or the offense stalls for a long stretch....who can he turn to? When a team starts pressing full court, where are his extra ball handlers? Spike would have helped solve a lot of those problems (as would Levert obviously).
- Leadership
Who is the leader of this team? When you picture the player who is going to take charge in the huddle, want the ball in his hand, get in an opponent's face, or dive for a loose ball.....who do you picture? I picture Spike. Last year it was his team and it would have been this year too I think. He'll probably be a coach in the near future. Yet he sits in a shirt and tie on the bench instead of annoying the opposing players and fans with his inexplicable and gritty talent.
I've heard a lot of people suggest that Beilein has hit his ceiling and is unable to recruit 5-star players for us to catch the elite teams. Perhaps that's true. But I never had that expectation of him. I'm old enough to have sat in the front row during the end of the Fisher era and followed the program through a decade of embarrasment. I don't want to try and keep up with Kentucky and all that comes with those elite recruits. My expectations for Beilein were to turn us into a program like Wisconsin. We would be in the tournament every year, we'd run a good offense, we would develop talent as well as anyone, and every couple of years we'd unearth or develop an NBA draft pick that would allow us to contend for a conference title or Final Four.
What is the biggest ingredient in Wisconsin's success over the years? Experience. They always have a bunch of juniors and seniors on the floor. Right now ours are sitting on the bench in street clothes while the few experienced guys we have left are playing 35 minutes per game.
We miss Spike.......(and of course we could use Caris back at any time too)